2022-2023 NBA Awards Predictions

 

2022-2023 NBA Awards Predictions

By: Shanku Nair | @shanku_nair on Twitter | September 27, 2022

Most Valuable Player: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks

The 27 year old going into the 6th year of his prime, and still yet to hit is peak, is my pick to win the MVP award for the 3rd time in his career. The "Greek Freak" won back to back MVPs in the 2019 and 2020 NBA seasons, and finished top 4 and top 3 in MVP voting the last 2 years, respectively. Last season was one of the closest MVP races in NBA history with Jokic, Embiid, and Antetokounmpo all being deserving of the award which was ultimately given to Jokic. Giannis has improved his overall skillset every season since coming into the league, particularly his mid-range jumper which he shot at a 42% clip last season, which is well above league average (~38%). Antetokounmpo is the best player in the world, in my opinion, for many reasons hence being my pick to win MVP. The first reason is his ridiculous scoring efficiency. Giannis averaged 29.9 points/game last season on 63.3% True Shooting. This mark was good for 3rd in the league among players averaging at least 17 field goal attempts/game behind only Jokic and Durant. Giannis's overall playmaking ability has improved tremendously as well not only making plays for himself, but for his teammates as well. The Bucks offense is centered around Giannis and his ability to drive and kick is among the best in the league, and his use of the swing pass out of double teams has been very impactful. His combination of length, speed, strength, and athleticism makes him the best slasher in the world. However, what sets Giannis apart from the rest is how elite he is defensively. I believe 2-way impact is extremely important when talking about the best player in the league and Giannis is extremely impactful on the defensive end. He is one of the greatest off-ball defenders not only currently, but of all time. His recovery time is second to none, and he is an exceptional shot blocker/rim deterrent. He is the only player in NBA history to average 25 points/game, 10 rebounds/game, 5 assists/game, 1 steal/game, and 1 block/game in multiple seasons, and he has averaged that stat line for 4 consecutive seasons. Giannis has been in both the MVP and DPOY conversation for the past 4 years, and won both awards in the 2019-2020 season, becoming the 3rd player in NBA history to win both in the same season. Another reason I believe Giannis is the best is his mentality, he will do whatever it takes to win and gives 100% effort on every possession. He will have a chip on his shoulder after a disappointing performance in the second round of the playoffs, and will strive to get even better. Giannis is my pick to win MVP this year, and will likely remain my pick for the next few years. 

Honorable Mentions: Luka Doncic, James Harden, and Steph Curry

Defensive Player of the Year: Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat

Bam Adebayo is my pick to win DPOY this year. Adebayo finished 4th in DPOY voting last year, and I believe this was largely due to the fact that he only played 56 games. Adebayo is the most versatile defender in the league, in my opinion. He has the ability to guard any position at an elite level. Looking at his box score stats, one would not think he is an elite defender as he only averaged 1.4 steals and 0.8 blocks per game last season. However, he may be the only player in the league who can switch any screen and have it not be a mismatch. Adebayo embraces the challenges as a defender, and his high iq, discipline, and strength make him both an elite on ball and off-ball defender. He is one of the few players that can guard shifty guards like Ja Morant, elite scorers like Kevin Durant, and freak athletes like Giannis and do so at an elite level. In most scenarios, when a big switches onto a smaller guy it is considered a mismatch, but for Bam this is not the case. When switching in the PnR, players shoot 35% from the field when Bam is switched onto them. His lateral movement at his size is unprecedented as it allows him to keep up with faster players, and when he does get beat off the dribble, he has incredible recovery speed to contest/block the shot. He has a very high defensive IQ and is great at intercepting passes, it seems like he is always well positioned to make a play at the ball. When blitzing/hedging, Bam has very quick hands and is able to disrupt the ball handler in some way if not getting the steal. The main thing keeping Bam away from the DPOY award is health, but if he can manage to play 65+ games this season, I believe he has a very good chance to win the award. 

Honorable Mentions: Jrue Holiday, Mikal Bridges, and Draymond Green

Rookie of the Year: Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic

Banchero is my pick to win Rookie of the Year for a few reasons. First, Banchero will likely have the biggest role of any rookie this year with the Magic who have struggled to find "their guy" for the past couple years. Banchero should be handling the majority of the ball handling duties as the facilitator of the offense while also being the primary scoring option. He will likely have a Usage% of 27+. For reference, Cade Cunningham had a Usage% of 27.3 last year as a rookie, and Banchero is entering a very similar situation where he will be the main guy. Second, I believe Banchero is the most NBA-ready rookie and is playstyle will translate very well to the NBA. He is one of the few players from the 2022 draft class with true superstar potential. He can score on all 3 levels, has great shot creation skills, is an incredible playmaker/passer, and is very solid on the defensive end. Although he is my pick to win Rookie of the Year, some other guys that would not surprise me are Keegan Murray of the Sacramento Kings, Jeremy Sochan of the San Antonio Spurs, and Jaden Ivey of the Detroit Pistons; these are all guys that should have relatively large roles on their respective teams. 

Most Improved Player: Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks

Jalen Brunson is my pick to win the Most Improved Player award this year. Brunson was given his starting role on the Mavericks 26 games into the regular season last year, and played extremely well alongside Luka Doncic. Obviously, Doncic was the center piece of that Mavs offense, and Brunson was merely a solid sidekick. However, in the 17 games that Doncic missed, Brunson stepped up when his team needed him most averaging 20 points, 8 assists, and 4 boards as the primary ball handler. This became even more evident in the first round of the playoffs where Doncic missed the first 3 games of the series. During this span, Brunson stepped up huge on the biggest stage and averaged a very efficient 32 points, 5 assists, and 5 boards going 2-1 over those 3 games. Brunson is a true Villanova product, a guy that plays high iq basketball and limits unforced errors. Brunson is one of the best interior scorers and an incredible finisher at the rim despite being just 6'1. Brunson led the NBA in floater efficiency, making 52% of 140 floaters attempted, which shows just how good his touch is around the basket. Brunson is now with the Knicks, and after getting a 4 year/ $104 million contract, there is a lot of pressure on Brunson to perform. He will have a significantly bigger role on the Knicks and I believe he will rise to the occasion and play some great basketball this season. 

Honorable Mentions: Tyrese Maxey, Zion Williamson, and Anthony Edwards

Sixth Man of the Year: Jordan Poole, Golden State Warriors

Jordan Poole is my pick to win 6th Man of the Year this season. In my opinion, Poole should've won Most Improved last year after taking a huge leap from from his sophomore season in 2021. Poole started 51 of 76 games last year for the Warriors, but the return of Klay Thompson sent him to the 6th man role. Poole played 30 minutes per game last season, and I see that increasing a bit even though he will be coming off the bench. Poole had an incredible year last season averaging 18.5 points/game on 59.8% TS!! Poole has really matured a lot as a player since coming into the league as a 20 year old, Poole still has lots of room for improvement being 22 now, and will likely continue on his upward trajectory. I think if Poole is able to replicate his production and efficiency from last season which is very probable, there is no reason he should not win 6th Man of the Year. 

Honorable Mentions: Cam Johnson, Norman Powell, and Tyler Herro

Coach of the Year: Taylor Jenkins, Memphis Grizzlies

Taylor Jenkins was in contention to win the award last year after taking the Grizzlies from barely making the play-in tournament to being the 2 seed in the West last year, also the second best record in the league. Jenkins has taken this very young Grizzlies team and turned them into a very well run, cohesive system. He has used the personnel he has very optimally as the Grizzlies ranked 8th in offensive efficiency and 3rd in defensive efficiency last year. Jenkins run a very high motion offense and likes to play with pace. With Ja Morant handling the ball, it makes it a lot easier to play with pace, but he did a great job evolving players like Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. Jenkins used a lot of flare screens to create space for his shooters, especially Desmond Bane who shot the deep ball at a 44% clip on high volume, good for 2nd in the league last year. Jenkins also developed a lovely 2-man game between Bane and Steven Adams with the DHO; again, using his personnel very well as Adams is one of the best screeners in the NBA. With the likes of Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr, and Dillon Brooks, it is no surprise that the Grizzlies were one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, but what Jenkins really preached was turning defense into offense. The Grizzlies were great in transition and got a lot of easy buckets because of the pace they played with. As this Grizzlies roster matures and gain more experience, they will be a serious threat to every team in the league and will be competing for NBA championships very soon. 

Honorable Mentions: Willie Green, J.B. Bickerstaff, and Steve Kerr

First Team All-NBA

Backcourt: Stephen Curry and Luka Doncic

Frontcourt: Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Joel Embiid

Second Team All-NBA

Backcourt: Ja Morant and James Harden

Frontcourt: Jayson Tatum, Zion Williamson, and Nikola Jokic

    

Third Team All-NBA

Backcourt: Trae Young and Devin Booker

Frontcourt: LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, and Bam Adebayo

First Team All-Defense

Backcourt: Jrue Holiday and Marcus Smart

Frontcourt: Mikal Bridges, Bam Adebayo, and Rudy Gobert

Second Team All-Defense

Backcourt: Paul George and Matisse Thybulle

Frontcourt: Kawhi Leonard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Anthony Davis

Let me know what you guys think in the comments and who you guys think are winning these major awards!!