2022-2023 NBA Season Overview + Projections for Every Team (Western Conference)

 

NBA Season Overview and Projections (Western Conference Edition)

By: Shanku Nair | @shanku_nair on Twitter | September 18, 2022

Northwest Division:

Denver Nuggets: The Denver Nuggets were led by back-to-back MVP, Nikola Jokic, to the 6 seed in the West last season. He did this without his 2 best supporting players in Jamal Murray, who missed the entire season, and Michael Porter Jr. who only played the first 9 games of the season. The Nuggets ran a very high motion based offense which fit Jokic perfectly and allowed him to not only dominate in the low-post but also use his elite playmaking to find his teammates on the perimeter. This season, I believe the Nuggets could be a serious threat to win the West if fully healthy as they get back one of the best 2-way guards in Jamal Murray as well as one of the most efficient scorers in the game in Michael Porter Jr. Porter Jr. is one of, if not the most underrated scorer in the league today. In the 2020-2021 NBA season, Porter Jr. averaged 19 PPG on 66.3% TS while shooting 44.5% from 3 on 6.3 attempts/game!! The Nuggets will likely have a starting lineup of Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell Pope, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., and Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets have good depth as well with Bones Hyland, Bruce Brown, Jeff Green, Demarcus Cousins, and rookie Christian Braun filling the rest of their rotation. If fully healthy, I see no reason why the Nuggets should be anything below a 5 seed. I project them to at least make the second round of the playoffs with their ceiling being a Western Conference Final appearance.

Minnesota Timberwolves: The Timberwolves finished with the 7th best record in the NBA, and beat the Clippers in the first game of the play-in tournament to solidify themselves as the #7 seed in the playoffs where they eventually lost to the Memphis Grizzlies in 6 games. This was a very disappointing loss as they blew a 26 point lead in game 3 and another double digit lead in game 6. Anthony Edwards showed up big time in his playoff debut averaging an efficient 25 PPG but other key players KAT and D'lo went silent. The T-Wolves made a blockbuster trade this offseason trading Malik Beasley, Patrick Beverly, Leandro Bolmaro, Walker Kessler, Jared Vanderbilt, 4 first round picks, and a pick swap in exchange for Rudy Gobert. The T-Wolves are clearly in a "win now" mentality but there are some spacing concerns in their offense with 2 bigs in Gobert and KAT on the floor. It will be interesting to see how Chris Finch uses them on the floor together, but I reckon we see a lot of HORNS and a lot of Gobert sitting in the dunkers' spot waiting for lobs. They will likely have a starting 5 of D'Angelo Russell, Anthony Edwards, Kyle Anderson, KAT, and Gobert. Their depth is an area of concern as they will have Jaylen Nowell, Taurean Prince, Naz Reid, Jordan McLaughlin, and rookie Wendell Moore off the bench to fill their rotation. The T-Wolves ranked 13th in Defensive Rating last season so I expect them to easily be top 10 this year with the addition of Gobert, although losing Beverly will certainly hurt their backcourt presence. I project the Timberwolves to be in the 7-9 seed range in the West with a ceiling of a first round playoff appearance. I believe their success is dependent on how big of a leap Anthony Edwards takes.

Oklahoma City Thunder: The Thunder finished with the 4th worst record in the NBA last season as they are still in their rebuild phase. With the 2nd overall pick in the draft, the Thunder selected Chet Holmgren who has the highest ceiling of any player in the draft. Unfortunately, Holmgren suffered a season ending right foot injury in a Pro-Am game this off-season. There are no expectations on the Thunder to do well, and will likely tank again for another lottery pick this year. They will likely have a starting lineup of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tre Mann, Josh Giddey, Darius Bazley, and Isaiah Roby or rookie Jaylin Williams at the 5. The Thunder had arguably the best draft of any team taking Jaylin Williams, Jalen Williams, and Ousmane Dieng along with Holmgren. I think all 3 of these guys will receive significant playing time this season as the Thunder have nothing to lose. Josh Giddey will likely take a nice leap this year after a very solid rookie year but missed the last third of the season due to injury. Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the best guards in the league, and at only 24 years of age, the Thunder have a bright future ahead. Not to mention, the boatload of first round draft picks Sam Presti has managed to accumulate over the next few years. I project the Thunder being a bottom 4 team in the West with a ceiling of a play-in tournament appearance but that seems very unlikely.

Portland Trailblazers: The Trail Blazers finished with the 3rd worst record in the West last year, mostly due to Damian Lillard's season ending injury 35 games through the season. The Blazers are in a weird spot because they have one of the best players in the league in Lillard but have not built a deserving supporting cast around him and have slipped past their contention window and should be looking to rebuild or at least add more pieces to be able to contend for a playoff spot. The Blazers will likely have a starting lineup of Damian Lillard, Anfernee Simons, Josh Hart, Jerami Grant, and Jusuf Nurkic which is not that bad on paper, but their depth is a major area of concern. They will have Gary Payton II, Greg Brown, Keon Johnson, lottery pick Shaedon Sharpe, and other rookie Jabari Walker filling the rotation. The Blazers will need efficient production from guys like Grant and Sharpe if they want to have success this year. I project the Blazers to be around the 10 seed fighting for a spot in the play in tournament, and a ceiling of a first round exit. I would be very surprised if they made the playoffs, though.

Utah Jazz: The Jazz finished with the 5th seed but lost in 5 games to the Mavs in the first round mostly due to a disappointing performance from their best player, Donovan Mitchell. After failing to make it past the 2nd round the last 5 years, Danny Ainge decided to blow it up and traded away their two best players in Mitchell and Rudy Gobert to begin the "rebuild phase". In exchange for these 2 guys, the Jazz received many first round draft picks as well as some young talent like Colin Sexton, Lauri Markkanen, Malik Beasley, and more. They also traded away Patrick Beverly to the Lakers for Talen Horton-Tucker and Stanley Johnson, 2 more talented young guys. It is quite interesting to note that Sexton as a 22 year old had similar production on much better efficiency than Donovan Mitchell as a 22 year old. If I had to guess the starting lineup, I would say Mike Conley, Colin Sexton, Bojan Bogdanovic, Jared Vanderbilt, and rookie Walker Kessler. Kessler is an interesting prospect as he was one of the best rim protectors in college basketball last year and while he won't be as impactful as Gobert, he will still be a huge interior presence. They also have good depth with Jordan Clarkson, Udoka Azubuike, Malik Beasley, Lauri Markkanen, THT, and Stanley Johnson filling their rotation for the most part but they also have some rookies and sophomores who could get playing time like Ochai Agbaji, Johnny Juzang, and Jared Butler. The Jazz also have an excellent coach in Will Hardy so I would not be surprised if the Jazz exceeded expectations this year. I project the Jazz to be in the 10-12 seed range fighting for a spot in the play-in tournament with a ceiling of a first round exit.

Pacific Division:

Golden State Warriors: After an injury riddled regular season, the Warriors finished as the 3rd seed in the West. Klay Thompson returned from his injury on January 9th and the Warriors looked pretty shaky, but once it came playoff time, they looked like the clear best team in the league. They had a very impressive playoff run beating the Nuggets in 5, the Grizzlies in 6, the Mavs in 5, and the Celtics in 6 and no series felt that competitive apart from the Grizzlies. The Warriors proved to everyone that they do not need Kevin Durant to win a title, and they did so comfortably. Steph Curry looked like the best player in the world, but he received a ton of help from guys like Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, Jordan Poole, Gary Payton II, and Kevon Looney. The Warriors will have a starting lineup of Curry, Thompson, Wiggins, Green and James Wiseman (if healthy). The Warriors were able to retain most of their key rotational players apart from Otto Porter Jr and Gary Payton II. They will still have great depth with Jordan Poole, Jonathan Kuminga, Kevon Looney, Moses Moody, and JaMychal Green primarily filling the rotation. Kuminga and Moody both showed glimpses of their potential last season and will receive a significant increase in playing time this year. I project the Warriors to be a top seed in the West and to repeat as NBA champions because of their experience, chemistry and the overall system that is so sustainable with 3 of the best shooters on the planet.

LA Clippers: The Clippers had a very injury riddled season last year with Kawhi Leonard missing the entire season and Paul George only playing 31 games. The Clippers finished with the 8th best record in the West but lost to the Timberwolves and Pelicans in the play-in to ultimately not make the playoffs. The Clippers made some mid-season trades acquiring Robert Covington and Norman Powell from the Trail Blazers really strengthening their roster. They also acquired John Wall this off-season who has not played a game since April of 2021. If fully healthy, the Clippers are more than capable of competing for an NBA Championship this year. With a starting lineup of John Wall, Norman Powell, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, and Ivica Zubac, the Clippers are have 2 of the best scorers in the league in George and Leonard along with Norman Powell who has been the most efficient role player over the past few years. The Clippers also have decent depth with Robert Covington, Reggie Jackson, Terrance Mann, Luke Kennard, Nicolas Batum, and Marcus Morris filling the rotation. Luke Kennard was the best 3 point shooter in the league last year, and will play a very valuable role in this Clippers offense. The main concern is that the Clippers do not have a backup big behind Zubac, but they do have the personnel to run small ball as they have a lot of versatile defenders. The Clippers also have one of the best coaches in the league in Tyronn Lue making them one the most well rounded teams in the league. I project the Clippers to be a top 3 seed in the West and make a Western Conference Final appearance. I believe their ceiling is a NBA title which is very possible.

LA Lakers: The Lakers had a very disappointing season last year after making a huge trade for Russell Westbrook the past offseason. They finished with the 11th best record in the West and failed to even make the play-in tournament. There were many issues with the Lakers last year including Anthony Davis' inability to stay healthy, Westbrooks decline in production and efficiency, and Frank Vogel's poor coaching/lack of adjustments. However, the Lakers look to start fresh after firing Vogel and hiring Darvin Ham, who will make his debut as a NBA head Coach this season. They also traded for Patrick Beverly who makes an immediate impact wherever he goes, not only with his defensive ability but also with his energy. I am interested to see who Ham decides to start but I believe the starting lineup should look like Patrick Beverly, Austin Reaves, LeBron James, Juan Toscano-Anderson, and Anthony Davis with LeBron playing the true point guard role on offense and facilitating in the half court. The Lakers second unit is also interesting because they have 3 traditional point guards in Westbrook, Denis Schroeder, and Kendrick Nunn although I can easily see Nunn transitioning to a wing. They also have Lonnie Walker and Thomas Bryant to add to their front court depth. The Lakers are a very difficult team to project based on last years results but when a team has LeBron James, it is hard to completely count them out. I think the Lakers will be in the 7-9 seed range and fighting for a spot in the playoffs. With that being said, I also believe the Lakers ceiling is another title given they have 2 of the best players in the world in James and Davis. Their success this year and going forward is contingent on Anthony Davis staying healthy which if far form a certainty as he has only played 76 games over the past 2 seasons combined.

Phoenix Suns: The Suns finished with the 1 seed in the West after a historic regular season going 64-18! They ended up beating the Pelicans in 6 games in the first round, but losing to the Mavericks in a blowout game 7. I still believe the Suns were the better team, but the Mavericks simply got hot at the right time. The Suns were able to retain all their key rotational players and they also have arguably the best head coach in the league in Monty Williams. They will have the same starting lineup of Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges, Jae Crowder and DeAndre Ayton with Cam Johnson, Cameron Payne, Landry Shamet, Bismack Biyombo, and Torrey Craig filling the rest of the rotation. A lot of the success is contingent on how well CP3 is able to maintain his level of play being 37 years old, and starting to show some signs of slowing down. Apart from that, I believe the Suns will be just fine and will compete for another Western Conference title. I project the Suns to be a top 6 seed in the West with their ceiling being another NBA Finals run.

Sacramento Kings: The Kings finished as the 12 seed in the West last year after making a big mid-season trade for Domantas Sabonis, Justin Holiday, Jeremy Lamb and a second round pick in exchange for Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield, and Tristan Thompson. Many people were skeptical of the Kings decision to keep De'Aaron Fox instead of Haliburton who had been playing extremely well for them. The Kings also picked up Malik Monk this past offseason who will add some perimeter shooting value to the team. The Kings will likely have a starting lineup of De'Aaron Fox, Malik Monk, Harrison Barnes, rookie Keegan Murray, and Domantas Sabonis. I believe Keegan Murray is the best pure scorer in this draft and his ability to create for himself on all 3 levels should help the Kings a lot. Filling the rest of the rotation, the Kings will have Davion "Off-Night" Mitchell, who had a great rookie season and has already cemented himself as one of the best on-ball defenders in the league. They will also have Kevin Huerter, Richaun Holmes, and Trey Lyles getting significant minutes. I think the Kings are one of the teams that are still young and need time to develop hence I project them to finish around the same as last year and be one of the worst teams in the West, but I think the future is bright and another lottery pick could change a lot.

Southwest Division:

Dallas Mavericks: The Mavs truly exceeded expectations finishing as the 4 seed in the West, and beating the Jazz in 6 games without Luka Doncic for the first 3. They then faced the Suns in a back and forth series with neither team losing at home until game 7 where the Mavs blew them out. The Mavs then proceeded to lose in 5 games in a non-competitive series to the Warriors, in which Luka Doncic had clearly run out of steam. The biggest issue the Mavs have is that they rely on Luka Doncic to carry the entire offense by himself and this leads to him being a liability defensively. Although Doncic is an incredible talent offensively, he still needs help and that Mavs front office has not done that for him yet. The Mavs also made a mid-season trade for Spencer Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans in exchange for Kristaps Porzingis and a second round pick. Dinwiddie played a very crucial role in the Mavs playoff run and was a huge reason they went as far as they did. This off-season, the Mavs acquired Christian Wood from the Rockets who fits the Mavs system perfectly as he can space the floor and is one of the best perimeter shooters in the league. However, one of the Mavs biggest concerns is their front court defense and lack of rim protection, and Wood does not solve this issue at all as he is one of the worst defensive big men in the league. The Mavs will likely have a starting lineup of Luka Doncic, Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney Smith, Reggie Bullock, and Christian Wood. Their depth is also an area of concern as they will have Tim Hardaway Jr., JaVale McGee, Dwight Powell, Maxi Kleber, and Frank Ntilikina filling the rotation. Rookie Jaden Hardy could add depth to the backcourt, but I am afraid he is still too raw and will see limited minutes this season. I project the Mavs to be in the 7-9 seed range and fighting for a spot in the playoffs as the West will be very competitive this year. Their ceiling is a second round playoff run with their current roster, but if the correct changes are made over the season they could go further.

Houston Rockets: The Houston Rockets finished with the worst record in the NBA last season, but had one of the best drafts of any team. The Rockets took Jalen Green with the 2nd overall pick in 2021 who got off to an abysmal start as a scorer. However, post all-star break he looked like a completely new player, very efficient as a scorer from all 3 levels and was able to make the All-Rookie first team and gave the Rockets some promise. Kevin Porter Jr. is as skilled as anyone in the league, and has the tools to become a great point guard but he needs to cut his turnover numbers badly and work on his overall discipline. If these 2 guys are able to take a leap, the Rockets could be pretty solid this year. They will likely have a starting lineup of Kevin Porter Jr., Jalen Green, Jae'Sean Tate, rookie Jabari Smith, and Alperen Sengun. Their second unit is quite concerning and will likely be filled by Josh Christopher, rookie Tari Eason, Garrison Matthews, Kenyon Martin Jr., and Usman Garuba. I think both rookies Jabari Smith and Tari Eason can make an immediate impact as they are incredible defenders that offer versatility. Smith has a high upside as a scorer, but needs to develop a tighter handle before he is given the responsibility of creating for his team. He will likely be used as a catch and shoot guy, which I think he will thrive as. I project the Rockets to be a bottom team in the West as they are too young and inexperienced to compete right now.

Memphis Grizzlies: The Grizzlies came out of no where and exceeded any and all possible expectations and secured the #2 seed in the Western conference. The Grizzlies are a very young team with a great head coach in Taylor Jenkins and the future is very bright for them. The Grizzlies beat the Timberwolves in 6 games after 2 huge come from behind wins, but then lost to the Warriors in 6 games in the second round. In my opinion, the Grizzlies gave the Warriors the most competitive series of anyone they faced en route to the title. Ja Morant took a huge leap from his sophomore season, winning the Most Improved Player award, but also Desmond Bane took a huge leap and is now considered one of the best perimeter shooters in the league. Jaren Jackson Jr. also played a very valuable role for them, mostly on the defensive end and he was in contention for Defensive Player of the Year. Steven Adams impact was felt beyond the stat sheet leading the NBA in offensive boards, and he also had a very nice 2-man game with Desmond Bane in the DHO opening up a lot of good looks for Bane. The Grizzlies will have the same starting lineup of Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Dillon Brooks, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Steven Adams. The Grizzlies also have great young depth with Tyus Jones, Danny Green, Brandon Clarke, and hopefully 2 rookies David Roddy and Kenneth Lofton Jr. Both Roddy and Lofton Jr. can make an immediate impact with their unique skillsets and defensive versatility. I project the Grizzlies to be a top 4 seed in the West with a ceiling of a Western Conference Finals run. I do believe this team has what it takes to win it all, but all of that is contingent on whether Morant can become more efficient as a scorer and improve his defense.

New Orleans Pelicans: The Pelicans may be the most underrated team in the NBA right now. The Pelicans finished with the 9th best record in the West and beat both the Spurs and the Clippers in the play-in tournament to make the playoffs as the 8 seed. The Pelicans made a mid-season trade for CJ McCollum, Larry Nance Jr., and Tony Snell. McCollum adjusted very nicely developing a nice 2-man game with Valancunias in the DHO. They exceeded expectations taking the Suns to 6 games behind Brandon Ingram averaging an efficient 27 PPG and a coaching masterclass from Willie Green. The fact that they were able to do this without Zion Williamson, a top 2 slasher in the game who had one of the most efficient scoring seasons in NBA history as a 20 year old, is scary. If fully healthy the Pelicans will likely have a starting lineup of CJ McCollum, Herb Jones, Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson, and Jonas Valancunias which could be the best offensive lineup in the league. This would be the biggest lineup in the league but they have the personnel to match up well with any team. Herb Jones made an immediate impact as a rookie last season being one of the best wing defenders in the league and he will likely be tasked with guarding the best scorer on any team they play going forward. The Pelicans also have great depth with Jose Alvarado, Jaxson Hayes, Larry Nance Jr., Devonte' Graham, and rookie Dyson Daniels. Daniels could very well be a starter for this team as he is a big guard that offers great playmaking and defensive versatility. I project the Pelicans to be a top 6 seed and a second round appearance in the playoffs would seem likely. I think their ceiling is an NBA Championship run, and they are my dark horse to win it this year. Their success is contingent on Williamson's health which is far from a guarantee but he has had a full year to rest so hopefully he can play 60+ games.

San Antonio Spurs: The Spurs finished with the 10th best record last season and were eliminated in the first round of the play-in tournament by the Pelicans. After trading Dejounte Murray, the Spurs seem to have gone into a rebuild, and will likely tank this season for a lottery pick in a very stacked 2023 draft class. The Spurs had a good draft this year taking guys like Jeremy Sochan and Malaki Branham who can make an immediate impact for them. Jacob Poeltl looked like one of the best bigs in the league last year, dominant on the glass and very steady on the defensive end. The Spurs will likely have a starting lineup of Tre Jones, Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Jeremy Sochan, and Jacob Poeltl. They have decent depth with Josh Richardson, Josh Primo, Doug McDermott, Keita Bates-Diop, and Malaki Branham. This a very young team that is inexperienced, but with one of the greatest coaches of all time, they should be good in a few years. As of now, I project the Spurs to be a bottom 3 team in the West.

Western Conference Tiers:

Let me know what you guys think in the comments and if there is anything you agree/disagree with!