2022-2023 Quarter-Season Individual NBA Awards

 

By: Shanku Nair | @shanku_nair on Twitter | November 29, 2022

    We are a quarter of the way through the 2022-2023 NBA Regular Season and I will be sharing my thoughts on who I believe are currently in the lead for major awards and how I think the narratives might switch as the season progresses. The start of this NBA season as been a wild one as there have been many players and teams who have taken unexpected leaps, so I will try to cover some of those as well.

Most Valuable Player: It is extremely difficult to choose just one player for this award thus far as I think there are four guys who have compelling arguments for it: Luka Doncic, Jayson Tatum, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Stephen Curry. 

• Luka Doncic is currently the odds-on favorite to win league MVP and his season through 20 games has been nothing short of incredible. Doncic is averaging a league-high 33 points/game on 60.5% True Shooting, 9 rebounds, and 8 assists per game. Doncic currently has the 2nd highest Usage Rate in the NBA at 37.8% meaning he is used in approximately 38% of the Mavs plays while he is on the floor. Not only is he carrying the Mavericks offense but he is turning the ball over at a career-low rate with a 11.3 TOV%, lowest of all players with a Usage Rate above 32%. The Mavs offense is run entirely through him when he's on the floor and is shooting above his career average from all areas of the floor except beyond the arc and from the stripe. Doncic is a matchup nightmare for every team in the league and has seen many different coverages but has been able to dissect them all. I personally would not give the award to him because of his lack of defensive presence and because the Mavs are just 9-10 thus far but he will certainly be a top candidate as the season goes on. 

• Jayson Tatum is having the best season of his young career by far and the results have followed as he is leading the Celtics to the best record in the NBA and best offense in the league at 120.5 points per 100 possessions which is well above the best in league history. Tatum is averaging 30.5 points on 62.5% True Shooting (!!), 8 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 steal, and 1 block per game. Tatum has cemented himself as one of the best 2-way players in the league with his incredible offensive talent which is now coupled with his elite defensive ability. Tatum has the 8th highest Usage Rate in the league at ~32% and has the lowest TOV% among all starters who are top 20 in Usage Rate. Tatum looks way more comfortable with the ball this season and is seeing career highs in shooting% from all areas of the court except from 3. Most notably is his improvement around the rim as he is shooting 81% from 0-3 feet up from 74% his previous season-high. The one area of Tatum's game that has really stood out to me is his playmaking as he has taken another big leap in that aspect as he is very selfless in creating for his team through his gravity. I've also liked Tatum's aggressiveness to start the season as he is getting to the line nearly 9 times per game, up from his previous season-high. If I had to give the MVP to one player through 20 games, it would be Jayson Tatum because of his 2-way impact and league-best team record. 

• Giannis Antetokounmpo, my pre-season pick to win the award and currently the 2nd favorite behind Doncic to win. Antetokounmpo is still the best player in the world, in my opinion and I still think he will win the award. He is currently averaging 31 points on 57.7% True Shooting, a 7 year low for him but still slightly above league average, 11 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 steal, and 1 block per game to lead his team to the 2nd best record in the NBA and best defensive rating in the league. This dip in efficiency will surely not continue and I expect him to be over 60% True Shooting by the end of the season. Antetokounmpo is 5th in points per game but is not even top 50 in minutes per game at just 32.3. I believe his assist numbers are not a good representation of his playmaking ability because he is creating some excellent looks for his team, he just has not gotten much help from his shooters. What really separates Giannis from the pack is his impact on the defensive end. Giannis is arguably the best off-ball/help defender the league has ever seen and that has been on full display through 20 games this year. Him and his teammate Brook Lopez have been the best front-court in basketball from a defensive perspective leaving teams helpless when they are playing around the rim. Giannis is currently my pick to win Defensive Player of the Year and if his scoring efficiency goes up which I am confident in, I think he should run away with his 3rd NBA MVP as the Bucks are still without Khris Middleton and Joe Ingles who will make the game a lot easier for Giannis.

• Stephen Curry through 20 games might be having the best offensive season of all time and would even go as far to say he is having a better season than his unanimous MVP season in 2016. Curry is currently at a career high in rebounds, assists, true shooting%, and career low in TOV%. He is averaging 31.4 points, 7 rebounds, 7 assists, and 1 steal per game. Curry is shooting nearly 80% from 0-3 feet and 61% from 3-10 feet as he is attacking closeouts very well and getting to his spots in the midrange where he has displayed his extremely underrated finishing/touch. Curry's impact is far more than what he does with the ball though; a defender (or two) must be denying Curry at all times which allows his teammates to get great looks consistently and this has greatly benefitted teammate Andrew Wiggins who is shooting 44% from deep on 7 attempts per game, up from his previous season high of 39%. Curry is also the benefactor for Klay Thompson's success as well who is shooting 40% deep after getting off to a very rough start from deep but seems to have found his shot as of late. Steph would be the clear front runner for MVP if the Warriors had a better record, but they are just 11-10 as of now. As the season progresses, I think the Warriors record will improve drastically and I think the MVP race will come down to Giannis and Steph. 

Defensive Player of the Year: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks

The "Greek Freak" has been amazing on the defensive end of the floor this season. While his counting stats may not accurately represent his impact on the defensive end, I think he has been the best defensive player in the league thus far. I have seen an improvement in his on-ball defense as he is doing a much better job moving his feet and staying in front of the ball however his off-ball defense is second to none. He is always in good position to make a play on the ball when it is going downhill and although he is averaging just 1 block/game he is altering so many shots at the rim. He uses his length and athleticism to recover so quickly to force opponents to pass the ball where against other teams it would be an easy shot. He is 2nd in individual defensive rating among all starters who have played at least 15 games this season behind only Grayson Allen, his teammate. The Bucks are the best defensive team in the league right now and Antetokounmpo is a huge reason for that. 

Honorable Mentions: OG Anunoby, Bam Adebayo, Deni Avdija, Mikal Bridges

Rookie of the Year: It is very difficult for me to pick just 1 at this point in the season but I do think it is a 2-man race between Paolo Banchero and Benedict Mathurin. If Banchero hadn't missed 7 games, I think he would be the clear favorite for this award.  

• Paolo Banchero has lived up the hype of being the #1 overall pick in this years NBA Draft and has played extremely well through the first 14 games of his NBA career. Banchero is 1st in minutes, points, and rebounds per game, 2nd in assists per game, top 6 in steals, and top 5 in blocks among all rookies this year. As expected, Banchero is the primary ball handler for the Magic and has done a great job operating in the half-court. Banchero's efficiency is his main fault right now with just a 55% True Shooting but I think that number will increase as he gets more comfortable with the pace of the NBA. Banchero has also been very solid on the defensive end and has displayed his versatility in guarding 1-4. 

• Bennedict Mathurin has been incredible this season for the Pacers averaging 19 points per game on 59% True Shooting off the bench which is the best among all rookies playing at least 20 minutes/game. Mathurin has adapted very nicely and has looked very comfortable with the pace of the NBA and has showed he is one of the best offensive talents in this class. He is shooting 42% from three on nearly 6 attempt/game which is among the best in the league. Mathurin has been a spark plug off the bench and I think is worthy of 6th Man of the Year nomination. 

Most Improved Player: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder

SGA is the clear front-runner for this award and it is a bit unfair to a lot of other players who have made incredible improvements to their game. SGA is a bonafide superstar in this league and should be in the MVP conversation but unfortunately his team is just not good enough. SGA is averaging 31.1 points per game this season, good for 4th in the league, up from just 25 per game last season. SGA really made a name for himself in the 2020-2021 NBA season in which he only played 35 games but that is when I knew he would be special. He has been uber-efficient this season with his 62% True Shooting and makes the game look so effortless as he gets to his spots in the mid-range where he is automatic. While SGA is a score-first guard, he is also a great playmaker and has done a great job of getting downhill and kicking to his teammates who he has not gotten a lot of help from as he is only averaging 6.2 assists/contest. The biggest improvement to his game though is his defense, averaging nearly 2 steals and 1 block per game. He has been much more engaged on this end of the floor than in years past and is one of the best 2-way guards in the league. 

Honorable Mentions: Lauri Markkanen, Tyrese Haliburton, Kevin Huerter

Sixth Man of the Year: Christian Wood, Dallas Mavericks

I believe Christian Wood should currently be the frontrunner for the 6th Man of the Year. Wood has arguably been the Mavericks second best player this season and has really provided them with much needed scoring for their second unit. Wood is averaging 17 points on 65.4% True Shooting while shooting 44% from three. Wood fits in the Mavs system perfectly as they like to play 5-out and he provides great spacing. Wood is currently 2nd among all bench players in points per game and 3rd in rebounds per game and is by far the most efficient among all high volume scorers. While Wood is playing at a very high level offensively, he is a liability on the other end which is his biggest knock. My pre-season pick for 6MOY was Jordan Poole and he still is my pick to win it. He has struggled from both a production and efficiency standpoint thus far but I think he will see significant improvement as the season goes on. 

Honorable Mentions: Russell Westbrook, Benedict Mathurin, Malcolm Brogdon

Coach of the Year: I believe the Coach of the Year race is extremely competitive so far this season and there are 2 guys I believe deserve it right now more than the rest. Both are rookie head coaches and they are Will Hardy of the Utah Jazz and Joe Mazzulla of the Boston Celtics

• What Will Hardy has done so far this year is incredible. Hardy took a completely reconstructed team with only 2 guys having played together in Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson, and turned the Jazz into a well-oiled machine that plays great team basketball and a 12-11 record. The Jazz were 12-6 and the 1 seed at one point but after losing 5 straight games have since dropped to the 9 seed in the West. The Jazz are 5th in offensive rating mostly due to their great spacing and their ability to play 5 out, especially when Vanderbilt and Kessler are not on the floor. A lot of the teams success should be credited to Lauri Markkanen who has shined in his role averaging a super efficient 22 ppg, and Hardy has utilized him well to get him great looks. 

• Joe Mazzulla would be my pick to win this award through this point in the season. Mazzulla is running the best offense in league history with a 120.9 Offensive Rating and also have the highest Net Rating in the league by a healthy margin at 9. Through 21 games, Mazzulla has led the Celtics to the best record in the NBA at 17-4 in his first year as an NBA Head Coach. Mazzulla has optimally used his personnel this season as they are able to run a 5-out high motion offense with center Rob Williams III out. This Celtics offense is tearing defenses apart with the team having a league best 63% True Shooting, 2.2% higher than the next team. Boston is taking 41.4 3s per game and hitting them at a league best 40.3% with 5 guys shooting above 45%. Their spacing is what allows them to be so dominant but when Rob Williams returns, they will no longer be able to play 5-out so there will likely be a drop of offensive production but an improvement in Defensive Rating and Offensive Rebounding where they current rank 14th and 29th, respectively. The biggest thing I like about what Mazzulla has done is he is making sure the players are playing within themselves which has led to far less turnovers than in years past. 

First Team All-NBA:

Backcourt                                       Frontcourt

Luka Doncic                                    Jayson Tatum

Stephen Curry                                  Giannis Antetokounmpo

                                                         Nikola Jokic

Second Team All-NBA:

Backcourt                                         Frontcourt

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander                  Kevin Durant

Ja Morant                                           Anthony Davis

                                                           Joel Embiid

Eastern Conference All-Star Starters

Tyrese Haliburton

Donovan Mitchell

Jayson Tatum

Kevin Durant

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Western Conference All-Star Starters

Luka Doncic

Stephen Curry

Zion Williamson

Anthony Davis

Nikola Jokic